Verdivurdering Keliber OY
29.12.2014 16:09
Sist oppdatert: 2017-08-22
Assumptions:
- Bank loan: 60%
- Offtake agreement: 35%
- Share issue: 5%
| KELIBER | -50% | -40% | -30% | -20% | -10% | Base case | +10% | +20% | +30% | +40% | +50% | +75% | +100% | Unit |
| Resource estimate (measured + indicated) | 4,03 | 4,84 | 5,65 | 6,45 | 7,26 | 8,07 | 8,87 | 9,68 | 10,48 | 11,29 | 12,10 | 14,11 | 16,13 | MT |
| Yearly takeout | 0,20 | 0,24 | 0,28 | 0,32 | 0,36 | 0,40 | 0,44 | 0,48 | 0,52 | 0,56 | 0,60 | 0,70 | 0,80 | MT |
| Li2O concentration | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | % |
| Wastage percentage | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | % |
| Yearly Li2O-production | 1 907 | 2 288 | 2 670 | 3 051 | 3 433 | 3 814 | 4 196 | 4 577 | 4 958 | 5 340 | 5 721 | 6 675 | 7 628 | Tonnes |
| Conversion factor Li2O -> Li2CO3 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | 2,473 | Tonnes |
| Recovery rate | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | 95 % | % |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production | 4 480 | 5 376 | 6 273 | 7 169 | 8 065 | 8 961 | 9 857 | 10 753 | 11 649 | 12 545 | 13 441 | 15 681 | 17 922 | Tonnes |
| Percentage of Li2CO3 > 99,9XX% | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | 10 % | % |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,5% | 4 032 | 4 839 | 5 645 | 6 452 | 7 258 | 8 065 | 8 871 | 9 678 | 10 484 | 11 291 | 12 097 | 14 113 | 16 129 | Tonnes |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,9% | 448 | 538 | 627 | 717 | 806 | 896 | 986 | 1 075 | 1 165 | 1 255 | 1 344 | 1 568 | 1 792 | Tonnes |
| Estimated mine life | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | 20,2 | Years |
| Yearly analcime production | 0,05 | 0,06 | 0,07 | 0,08 | 0,09 | 0,10 | 0,11 | 0,12 | 0,13 | 0,14 | 0,15 | 0,18 | 0,20 | MT |
| Yearly columbite production | 12 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 29 | 31 | 34 | 36 | 42 | 48 | Tonnes |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,5% | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | 10 910 | USD/ton |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,9% | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | 13 334 | USD/ton |
| Market value analcime | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | 275 | USD/ton |
| Market value columbite | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | 0,26 | MUSD/ton |
| OPEX | 1 113 | 1 335 | 1 558 | 1 780 | 2 003 | 2 225 | 2 448 | 2 670 | 2 893 | 3 115 | 3 338 | 3 894 | 4 450 | EUR/ton |
| OPEX total (mine life) | 201 | 241 | 281 | 322 | 362 | 402 | 442 | 482 | 523 | 563 | 603 | 704 | 804 | MEUR |
| Exchange rate NOK/USD: 22.08.2017 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | 7,91 | NOK/USD |
| Exchange rate NOK/EUR: 22.08.2017 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | 9,31 | NOK/EUR |
| Yearly profit (incl. analcite & columbite) | 485 | 570 | 652 | 731 | 805 | 876 | 944 | 1 007 | 1 067 | 1 123 | 1 175 | 1 290 | 1 381 | MNOK |
| Total profit | 9,8 | 11,5 | 13,2 | 14,7 | 16,2 | 17,7 | 19,0 | 20,3 | 21,5 | 22,6 | 23,7 | 26,0 | 27,9 | BNOK |
| Base investment | 0,79 | 0,94 | 1,10 | 1,26 | 1,41 | 1,57 | 1,73 | 1,88 | 2,04 | 2,20 | 2,36 | 2,75 | 3,14 | BNOK |
| Bank loan (% of investment cost) | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | 60 % | % |
| Offtake agreement (% of investment cost) | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | 35 % | % |
| Sales discount for Offtake agreement | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | 20 % | % |
| Share issue (% of investment cost) | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | 0 % | % |
| Share issue (% of investment cost) | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | 5 % | % |
| Payback cost | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | 200 % | % |
| Total investment cost | 1,3 | 1,5 | 1,8 | 2,0 | 2,3 | 2,5 | 2,8 | 3,1 | 3,3 | 3,6 | 3,8 | 4,5 | 5,1 | BNOK |
| NVP | 8,5 | 10,0 | 11,4 | 12,7 | 14,0 | 15,1 | 16,2 | 17,3 | 18,2 | 19,1 | 19,9 | 21,6 | 22,8 | BNOK |
| NVP after share issue cost reduction | 8,1 | 9,5 | 10,8 | 12,1 | 13,3 | 14,4 | 15,4 | 16,4 | 17,3 | 18,1 | 18,9 | 20,5 | 21,6 | BNOK |
| Keliber No. Of shares after share issue | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | 0,95 | Mill. Shares |
| Nordic Mining project interest | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | 22,1 % | % |
| Total value of Nordic Mining project interest | 1 784 | 2 094 | 2 388 | 2 666 | 2 929 | 3 176 | 3 407 | 3 622 | 3 822 | 4 006 | 4 174 | 4 526 | 4 780 | MNOK |
| Nordic Mining shares | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | 94,8 | Mill shares |
| Share value P/E 30 | 28,00 | 32,86 | 37,47 | 41,84 | 45,96 | 49,83 | 53,46 | 56,84 | 59,97 | 62,86 | 65,50 | 71,02 | 75,00 | NOK/share |
| Share value P/E 25 | 23,33 | 27,38 | 31,23 | 34,86 | 38,30 | 41,53 | 44,55 | 47,36 | 49,98 | 52,38 | 54,58 | 59,18 | 62,50 | NOK/share |
| Share value P/E 20 | 18,67 | 21,91 | 24,98 | 27,89 | 30,64 | 33,22 | 35,64 | 37,89 | 39,98 | 41,90 | 43,66 | 47,35 | 50,00 | NOK/share |
| Share value P/E 15 | 14,00 | 16,43 | 18,74 | 20,92 | 22,98 | 24,92 | 26,73 | 28,42 | 29,99 | 31,43 | 32,75 | 35,51 | 37,50 | NOK/share |
| Share value P/E 10 | 9,33 | 10,95 | 12,49 | 13,95 | 15,32 | 16,61 | 17,82 | 18,95 | 19,99 | 20,95 | 21,83 | 23,67 | 25,00 | NOK/share |
Updated: 25.06.2017
| KELIBER | Low | Base case - 35% | Medium low | Base case - 15% | Base case | Base case + 15% | Medium high | Base case + 35% | High | Unit |
| Resource estimate (measured + indicated) | 4,03 | 5,24 | 6,05 | 6,86 | 8,07 | 9,27 | 10,08 | 10,89 | 12,10 | mill tonnes |
| Li2O concentration | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | 1,19 % | % |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,5% | 4050 | 5265 | 6075 | 6885 | 8100 | 9315 | 10125 | 10935 | 12150 | tonnes |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,9% | 450 | 585 | 675 | 765 | 900 | 1035 | 1125 | 1215 | 1350 | tonnes |
| Recovery grade | 93 % | 93 % | 94 % | 94 % | 95 % | 96 % | 96 % | 97 % | 98 % | |
| Estimated mine life | 9,9 | 10,0 | 10,0 | 10,1 | 10,1 | 10,2 | 10,3 | 10,3 | 10,4 | year |
| Yearly analcime production | 50800 | 66040 | 76200 | 86360 | 101600 | 116840 | 127000 | 137160 | 152400 | tonnes |
| Yearly columbite production | 12 | 16 | 18 | 20 | 24 | 28 | 30 | 32 | 36 | tonnes |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,5% | 5455 | 7092 | 8183 | 9274 | 10910 | 12547 | 13638 | 14729 | 16365 | USD/ton |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,9% | 6667 | 8667 | 10001 | 11334 | 13334 | 15334 | 16668 | 18001 | 20001 | USD/ton |
| Market value analcime | 138 | 179 | 206 | 234 | 275 | 316 | 344 | 371 | 413 | USD/ton |
| Market value columbite | 132278 | 171961 | 198416 | 224872 | 264555 | 304238 | 330694 | 357149 | 396833 | USD/ton |
| OPEX | 2725 | 3543 | 4088 | 4633 | 5450 | 6268 | 6813 | 7358 | 8175 | EUR/ton |
| OPEX total (mine life) | 121 | 206 | 276 | 357 | 498 | 663 | 788 | 924 | 1149 | MEUR |
| Exchange rate NOK/USD: 25.06.2017 | 4,3 | 5,5 | 6,4 | 7,3 | 8,5 | 9,8 | 10,7 | 11,5 | 12,8 | NOK/USD |
| Exchange rate NOK/EUR: 25.06.2017 | 4,8 | 6,2 | 7,2 | 8,1 | 9,5 | 11,0 | 11,9 | 12,9 | 14,3 | NOK/EUR |
| Yearly profit (incl. analcite & columbite) | 85 | 187 | 287 | 418 | 680 | 1035 | 1329 | 1674 | 2296 | MNOK |
| Total profit | 0,8 | 1,9 | 2,9 | 4,2 | 6,9 | 10,6 | 13,7 | 17,3 | 23,9 | MRD NOK |
| Base investment | 0,79 | 1,02 | 1,18 | 1,33 | 1,57 | 1,81 | 1,96 | 2,12 | 2,36 | MRD NOK |
| Payback cost | 130 % | 169 % | 195 % | 221 % | 260 % | 299 % | 325 % | 351 % | 390 % | |
| Total investment cost | 1,0 | 1,7 | 2,3 | 2,9 | 4,1 | 5,4 | 6,4 | 7,4 | 9,2 | MRD NOK |
| NVP | -0,2 | 0,1 | 0,6 | 1,3 | 2,8 | 5,2 | 7,3 | 9,9 | 14,7 | MRD NOK |
| Number of shares | 0,48 | 0,62 | 0,72 | 0,81 | 0,95 | 1,10 | 1,19 | 1,29 | 1,43 | Mill. shares |
| Nordic Mining project interest | 11 % | 14 % | 17 % | 19 % | 22 % | 25 % | 28 % | 30 % | 33 % | % |
| Total value of Nordic Mining project interest | -20 | 20 | 96 | 236 | 624 | 1317 | 2012 | 2941 | 4882 | MNOK |
| Nordic Mining shares | 94,83 | 94,83 | 94,83 | 94,83 | 94,83 | 94,83 | 94,83 | 94,83 | 94,83 | Mill shalres |
| Share value P/E 10 | -0,21 | 0,21 | 1,01 | 2,47 | 6,48 | 13,58 | 20,64 | 30,01 | 49,44 | NOK/share |
| Share value P/E 15 | -0,32 | 0,31 | 1,51 | 3,71 | 9,72 | 20,38 | 30,95 | 45,02 | 74,15 | NOK/share |
| Share value P/E 20 | -0,43 | 0,41 | 2,02 | 4,95 | 12,96 | 27,17 | 41,27 | 60,03 | 98,87 | NOK/share |
| Value of 1% downsale when P/E 10 and 0% discount | -1,82 | 1,37 | 5,77 | 12,48 | 27,80 | 50,68 | 70,84 | 95,40 | 141,42 | MNOK |
| Cash available if 10% downsale and 40% discount | -7 | 5 | 23 | 50 | 111 | 203 | 283 | 382 | 566 | MNOK |
| Cash available @ 15% downsale & 40% discount | -11 | 8 | 35 | 75 | 167 | 304 | 425 | 572 | 849 | MNOK |
Updated: 16.12.2016
Major updates:
Updated number of shares after a private placement of 8 620 000 shares
- Spencer Trading AS
- A London based asset management fund
- Alden AS
- Tigerstaden AS
6 378 666 shares will be issued approx. 18.12.2016
2 241 334 shares will be issued approx. 10.01.2017
| KELIBER | Low | Base case - 35% | Medium low | Base case - 15% | Base case | Base case + 15% | Medium high | Base case + 35% | High | Unit |
| Resource estimate (proven + probable + inferred) | 4,91 | 5,40 | 5,72 | 6,05 | 6,541 | 7,03 | 7,36 | 7,69 | 8,18 | mill tonnes |
| Li2O concentration | 1,10 % | 1,15 % | 1,18 % | 1,21 % | 1,26 % | 1,31 % | 1,34 % | 1,37 % | 1,42 % | % |
| Resource reserves (proven + probable) not included | 4,07 | 4,47 | 4,74 | 5,02 | 5,422 | 5,83 | 6,10 | 6,37 | 6,78 | mill tonnes |
| Resource reserves Li2O concentration | 0,95 % | 0,99 % | 1,02 % | 1,05 % | 1,09 % | 1,13 % | 1,16 % | 1,19 % | 1,23 % | % |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,5% | 6075 | 6683 | 7088 | 7493 | 8100 | 8708 | 9113 | 9518 | 10125 | tonnes |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,9% | 675 | 743 | 788 | 833 | 900 | 968 | 1013 | 1058 | 1125 | tonnes |
| Recovery grade | 75 % | 83 % | 88 % | 93 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | |
| Estimated mine life | 6,0 | 6,9 | 7,5 | 8,2 | 9,2 | 9,5 | 9,7 | 10,0 | 10,3 | year |
| Yearly analcime production | 76200 | 83820 | 88900 | 93980 | 101600 | 109220 | 114300 | 119380 | 127000 | tonnes |
| Yearly columbite production | 18 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 30 | tonnes |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,5% | 8182,5 | 9000,75 | 9546,25 | 10091,75 | 10910 | 11728,25 | 12273,75 | 12819,25 | 13637,5 | USD/ton |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,9% | 10001 | 11001 | 11668 | 12334 | 13334 | 14335 | 15001 | 15668 | 16668 | USD/ton |
| Market value analcime | 206,25 | 226,875 | 240,625 | 254,375 | 275 | 295,625 | 309,375 | 323,125 | 343,75 | USD/ton |
| Market value columbite | 198416 | 218258 | 231486 | 244713 | 264555 | 284397 | 297624 | 310852 | 330694 | USD/ton |
| OPEX | 2725 | 3543 | 4088 | 4633 | 5450 | 6268 | 6813 | 7358 | 8175 | EUR/ton |
| OPEX total (mine life) | 225 | 292 | 337 | 382 | 449 | 517 | 561 | 606 | 674 | MEUR |
| Exchange rate USD to NOK | 6,41 | 7,05 | 7,48 | 7,91 | 8,55 | 9,19 | 9,62 | 10,05 | 10,69 | NOK/USD |
| Exchange rate EUR to NOK | 6,81 | 7,49 | 7,95 | 8,40 | 9,08 | 9,76 | 10,22 | 10,67 | 11,35 | NOK/EUR |
| Yearly profit (incl. analcite & columbite) | 360 | 449 | 516 | 587 | 706 | 838 | 935 | 1038 | 1205 | MNOK |
| Total profit | 2,17 | 3,10 | 3,87 | 4,79 | 6,46 | 7,97 | 9,09 | 10,33 | 12,41 | MRD NOK |
| Base investment | 1,18 | 1,30 | 1,37 | 1,45 | 1,57 | 1,69 | 1,77 | 1,85 | 1,96 | MRD NOK |
| Payback cost | 195 % | 215 % | 228 % | 241 % | 260 % | 280 % | 293 % | 306 % | 325 % | MRD NOK |
| Total investment cost | 2,30 | 2,78 | 3,13 | 3,49 | 4,08 | 4,72 | 5,17 | 5,64 | 6,38 | MRD NOK |
| NVP | -0,1 | 0,3 | 0,7 | 1,3 | 2,4 | 3,2 | 3,9 | 4,7 | 6,0 | MRD NOK |
| Number of shares | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | 92,6 | mill. shares |
| Nordic Mining project interest | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | % |
| Total value of Nordic Mining project interest | -33 | 80 | 187 | 323 | 595 | 812 | 981 | 1174 | 1508 | MNOK |
| Share value @ 25% interests, P/E < 10 | -0,35 | 0,86 | 2,01 | 3,49 | 6,43 | 8,76 | 10,60 | 12,68 | 16,29 | NOK/share |
| Share value @ 15% interests | -0,21 | 0,52 | 1,21 | 2,10 | 3,86 | 5,26 | 6,36 | 7,61 | 9,77 | NOK/share |
| Share value @ 10% interests | -0,14 | 0,34 | 0,81 | 1,40 | 2,57 | 3,51 | 4,24 | 5,07 | 6,51 | NOK/share |
| Cash available @ 10% downsale & 50% discount | -7 | 16 | 37 | 65 | 119 | 162 | 196 | 235 | 302 | MNOK |
| Cash available @ 15% downsale & 50% discount | -10 | 24 | 56 | 97 | 179 | 243 | 294 | 352 | 452 | MNOK |
Updated: 08.12.2016
Major updates:
Updated number of shares after reverse split 6:1
| KELIBER | Low | Base case - 35% | Medium low | Base case - 15% | Base case | Base case + 15% | Medium high | Base case + 35% | High | Unit |
| Resource estimate (proven + probable + inferred) | 4,91 | 5,40 | 5,72 | 6,05 | 6,541 | 7,03 | 7,36 | 7,69 | 8,18 | mill tonnes |
| Li2O concentration | 1,10 % | 1,15 % | 1,18 % | 1,21 % | 1,26 % | 1,31 % | 1,34 % | 1,37 % | 1,42 % | % |
| Resource reserves (proven + probable) not included | 4,07 | 4,47 | 4,74 | 5,02 | 5,422 | 5,83 | 6,10 | 6,37 | 6,78 | mill tonnes |
| Resource reserves Li2O concentration | 0,95 % | 0,99 % | 1,02 % | 1,05 % | 1,09 % | 1,13 % | 1,16 % | 1,19 % | 1,23 % | % |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,5% | 6075 | 6683 | 7088 | 7493 | 8100 | 8708 | 9113 | 9518 | 10125 | tonnes |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,9% | 675 | 743 | 788 | 833 | 900 | 968 | 1013 | 1058 | 1125 | tonnes |
| Recovery grade | 75 % | 83 % | 88 % | 93 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | |
| Estimated mine life | 6,0 | 6,9 | 7,5 | 8,2 | 9,2 | 9,5 | 9,7 | 10,0 | 10,3 | year |
| Yearly analcime production | 76200 | 83820 | 88900 | 93980 | 101600 | 109220 | 114300 | 119380 | 127000 | tonnes |
| Yearly columbite production | 18 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 30 | tonnes |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,5% | 8182,5 | 9000,75 | 9546,25 | 10091,75 | 10910 | 11728,25 | 12273,75 | 12819,25 | 13637,5 | USD/ton |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,9% | 10001 | 11001 | 11668 | 12334 | 13334 | 14335 | 15001 | 15668 | 16668 | USD/ton |
| Market value analcime | 206,25 | 226,875 | 240,625 | 254,375 | 275 | 295,625 | 309,375 | 323,125 | 343,75 | USD/ton |
| Market value columbite | 198416 | 218258 | 231486 | 244713 | 264555 | 284397 | 297624 | 310852 | 330694 | USD/ton |
| OPEX | 2725 | 3543 | 4088 | 4633 | 5450 | 6268 | 6813 | 7358 | 8175 | EUR/ton |
| OPEX total (mine life) | 225 | 292 | 337 | 382 | 449 | 517 | 561 | 606 | 674 | MEUR |
| Exchange rate USD to NOK | 6,41 | 7,05 | 7,48 | 7,91 | 8,55 | 9,19 | 9,62 | 10,05 | 10,69 | NOK/USD |
| Exchange rate EUR to NOK | 6,81 | 7,49 | 7,95 | 8,40 | 9,08 | 9,76 | 10,22 | 10,67 | 11,35 | NOK/EUR |
| Yearly profit (incl. analcite & columbite) | 360 | 449 | 516 | 587 | 706 | 838 | 935 | 1038 | 1205 | MNOK |
| Total profit | 2,17 | 3,10 | 3,87 | 4,79 | 6,46 | 7,97 | 9,09 | 10,33 | 12,41 | MRD NOK |
| Base investment | 1,18 | 1,30 | 1,37 | 1,45 | 1,57 | 1,69 | 1,77 | 1,85 | 1,96 | MRD NOK |
| Payback cost | 195 % | 215 % | 228 % | 241 % | 260 % | 280 % | 293 % | 306 % | 325 % | MRD NOK |
| Total investment cost | 2,30 | 2,78 | 3,13 | 3,49 | 4,08 | 4,72 | 5,17 | 5,64 | 6,38 | MRD NOK |
| NVP | -0,1 | 0,3 | 0,7 | 1,3 | 2,4 | 3,2 | 3,9 | 4,7 | 6,0 | MRD NOK |
| Number of shares | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | 86,2 | mill. shares |
| Nordic Mining project interest | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | % |
| Total value of Nordic Mining project interest | -33 | 80 | 187 | 323 | 595 | 812 | 981 | 1174 | 1508 | MNOK |
| Share value @ 25% interests, P/E < 10 | -0,38 | 0,92 | 2,16 | 3,75 | 6,90 | 9,41 | 11,38 | 13,61 | 17,49 | NOK/share |
| Share value @ 15% interests | -0,23 | 0,55 | 1,30 | 2,25 | 4,14 | 5,65 | 6,83 | 8,17 | 10,49 | NOK/share |
| Share value @ 10% interests | -0,15 | 0,37 | 0,87 | 1,50 | 2,76 | 3,77 | 4,55 | 5,45 | 7,00 | NOK/share |
| Cash available @ 10% downsale & 50% discount | -7 | 16 | 37 | 65 | 119 | 162 | 196 | 235 | 302 | MNOK |
| Cash available @ 15% downsale & 50% discount | -10 | 24 | 56 | 97 | 179 | 243 | 294 | 352 | 452 | MNOK |
Last updated: 29.11.2016
Major updates:
- Updated EUR and USD exchange rate
- Updated resource estimate, CAPEX and OPEX
| KELIBER | Low | Base case - 35% | Medium low | Base case - 15% | Base case | Base case + 15% | Medium high | Base case + 35% | High | Unit |
| Resource estimate (proven + probable + inferred) | 4,91 | 5,40 | 5,72 | 6,05 | 6,541 | 7,03 | 7,36 | 7,69 | 8,18 | mill tonnes |
| Li2O concentration | 1,10 % | 1,15 % | 1,18 % | 1,21 % | 1,26 % | 1,31 % | 1,34 % | 1,37 % | 1,42 % | % |
| Resource reserves (proven + probable) not included | 4,07 | 4,47 | 4,74 | 5,02 | 5,422 | 5,83 | 6,10 | 6,37 | 6,78 | mill tonnes |
| Resource reserves Li2O concentration | 0,95 % | 0,99 % | 1,02 % | 1,05 % | 1,09 % | 1,13 % | 1,16 % | 1,19 % | 1,23 % | % |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,5% | 6075 | 6683 | 7088 | 7493 | 8100 | 8708 | 9113 | 9518 | 10125 | tonnes |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,9% | 675 | 743 | 788 | 833 | 900 | 968 | 1013 | 1058 | 1125 | tonnes |
| Recovery grade | 75 % | 83 % | 88 % | 93 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | |
| Estimated mine life | 6,0 | 6,9 | 7,5 | 8,2 | 9,2 | 9,5 | 9,7 | 10,0 | 10,3 | year |
| Yearly analcime production | 76200 | 83820 | 88900 | 93980 | 101600 | 109220 | 114300 | 119380 | 127000 | tonnes |
| Yearly columbite production | 18 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 30 | tonnes |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,5% | 8182,5 | 9000,75 | 9546,25 | 10091,75 | 10910 | 11728,25 | 12273,75 | 12819,25 | 13637,5 | USD/ton |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,9% | 10001 | 11001 | 11668 | 12334 | 13334 | 14335 | 15001 | 15668 | 16668 | USD/ton |
| Market value analcime | 206,25 | 226,875 | 240,625 | 254,375 | 275 | 295,625 | 309,375 | 323,125 | 343,75 | USD/ton |
| Market value columbite | 198416 | 218258 | 231486 | 244713 | 264555 | 284397 | 297624 | 310852 | 330694 | USD/ton |
| OPEX | 2725 | 3543 | 4088 | 4633 | 5450 | 6268 | 6813 | 7358 | 8175 | EUR/ton |
| OPEX total (mine life) | 225 | 292 | 337 | 382 | 449 | 517 | 561 | 606 | 674 | MEUR |
| Exchange rate USD to NOK | 6,41 | 7,05 | 7,48 | 7,91 | 8,55 | 9,19 | 9,62 | 10,05 | 10,69 | NOK/USD |
| Exchange rate EUR to NOK | 6,81 | 7,49 | 7,95 | 8,40 | 9,08 | 9,76 | 10,22 | 10,67 | 11,35 | NOK/EUR |
| Yearly profit (incl. analcite & columbite) | 360 | 449 | 516 | 587 | 706 | 838 | 935 | 1038 | 1205 | MNOK |
| Total profit | 2,17 | 3,10 | 3,87 | 4,79 | 6,46 | 7,97 | 9,09 | 10,33 | 12,41 | MRD NOK |
| Base investment | 1,18 | 1,30 | 1,37 | 1,45 | 1,57 | 1,69 | 1,77 | 1,85 | 1,96 | MRD NOK |
| Payback cost | 195 % | 215 % | 228 % | 241 % | 260 % | 280 % | 293 % | 306 % | 325 % | MRD NOK |
| Total investment cost | 2,30 | 2,78 | 3,13 | 3,49 | 4,08 | 4,72 | 5,17 | 5,64 | 6,38 | MRD NOK |
| NVP | -0,1 | 0,3 | 0,7 | 1,3 | 2,4 | 3,2 | 3,9 | 4,7 | 6,0 | MRD NOK |
| Number of shares | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | mill. shares |
| Nordic Mining project interest | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | % |
| Total value of Nordic Mining project interest | -33 | 80 | 187 | 323 | 595 | 812 | 981 | 1174 | 1508 | MNOK |
| Share value @ 25% interests, P/E < 10 | -0,06 | 0,15 | 0,36 | 0,63 | 1,15 | 1,57 | 1,90 | 2,27 | 2,92 | NOK/share |
| Share value @ 15% interests | -0,04 | 0,09 | 0,22 | 0,38 | 0,69 | 0,94 | 1,14 | 1,36 | 1,75 | NOK/share |
| Share value @ 10% interests | -0,03 | 0,06 | 0,14 | 0,25 | 0,46 | 0,63 | 0,76 | 0,91 | 1,17 | NOK/share |
| Cash available @ 10% downsale & 50% discount | -7 | 16 | 37 | 65 | 119 | 162 | 196 | 235 | 302 | MNOK |
| Cash available @ 15% downsale & 50% discount | -10 | 24 | 56 | 97 | 179 | 243 | 294 | 352 | 452 | MNOK |
Updated: 29.06.2016
| Last updated: 29.06.2016 | Low | Base case - 35% | Medium low | Base case - 15% | Base case | Base case + 15% | Medium high | Base case + 35% | High | Unit |
| Resource estimate | 3,99 | 4,39 | 4,66 | 4,92 | 5,32 | 5,72 | 5,99 | 6,25 | 6,65 | mill tonnes |
| Li2O concentration | 1,03 % | 1,08 % | 1,11 % | 1,14 % | 1,18 % | 1,22 % | 1,25 % | 1,28 % | 1,33 % | % |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,5% | 6075 | 6683 | 7088 | 7493 | 8100 | 8708 | 9113 | 9518 | 10125 | tonnes |
| Yearly Li2CO3-production 99,9% | 675 | 743 | 788 | 833 | 900 | 968 | 1013 | 1058 | 1125 | tonnes |
| Recovery grade | 75 % | 83 % | 88 % | 93 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | 100 % | |
| Estimated mine life | 4,6 | 5,3 | 5,7 | 6,2 | 7,0 | 7,2 | 7,4 | 7,6 | 7,8 | year |
| Yearly analcime production | 76200 | 83820 | 88900 | 93980 | 101600 | 109220 | 114300 | 119380 | 127000 | tonnes |
| Yearly columbite production | 18 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 30 | tonnes |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,5% | 6750 | 7425 | 7875 | 8325 | 9000 | 9675 | 10125 | 10575 | 11250 | USD/ton |
| Market value Li2CO3 99,9% | 8250 | 9075 | 9625 | 10175 | 11000 | 11825 | 12375 | 12925 | 13750 | USD/ton |
| Market value analcime | 206,25 | 226,875 | 240,625 | 254,375 | 275 | 295,625 | 309,375 | 323,125 | 343,75 | USD/ton |
| Market value columbite | 198416 | 218258 | 231486 | 244713 | 264555 | 284397 | 297624 | 310852 | 330694 | USD/ton |
| OPEX | 1162 | 1510 | 1742 | 1975 | 2323 | 2671 | 2904 | 3136 | 3485 | EUR/ton |
| Exchange rate USD to NOK | 6,44 | 7,08 | 7,51 | 7,94 | 8,58 | 9,22 | 9,65 | 10,08 | 10,73 | NOK/USD |
| Exchange rate EUR to NOK | 7,10 | 7,80 | 8,28 | 8,75 | 9,46 | 10,17 | 10,64 | 11,12 | 11,83 | NOK/EUR |
| Yearly profit (incl. analcite & columbite) | 368 | 477 | 559 | 651 | 807 | 985 | 1118 | 1261 | 1499 | MNOK |
| Total profit | 1,69 | 2,50 | 3,20 | 4,04 | 5,63 | 7,13 | 8,28 | 9,57 | 11,76 | MRD NOK |
| Base investment | 1,16 | 1,28 | 1,36 | 1,43 | 1,55 | 1,67 | 1,74 | 1,82 | 1,94 | MRD NOK |
| Payback cost | 135 % | 149 % | 158 % | 167 % | 180 % | 194 % | 203 % | 212 % | 225 % | MRD NOK |
| Total investment cost | 1,57 | 1,90 | 2,14 | 2,39 | 2,79 | 3,22 | 3,53 | 3,85 | 4,36 | MRD NOK |
| NVP | 0,1 | 0,6 | 1,1 | 1,7 | 2,8 | 3,9 | 4,8 | 5,7 | 7,4 | MRD NOK |
| Number of shares | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | 517,2 | mill. shares |
| Nordic Mining project interest | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | 25 % | % |
| Total value of Nordic Mining project interest | 29 | 151 | 266 | 414 | 709 | 976 | 1188 | 1429 | 1850 | MNOK |
| Share value @ 25% interests, P/E < 10 | 0,06 | 0,29 | 0,51 | 0,80 | 1,37 | 1,89 | 2,30 | 2,76 | 3,58 | NOK/share |
| Share value @ 15% interests | 0,03 | 0,18 | 0,31 | 0,48 | 0,82 | 1,13 | 1,38 | 1,66 | 2,15 | NOK/share |
| Share value @ 10% interests | 0,02 | 0,12 | 0,21 | 0,32 | 0,55 | 0,76 | 0,92 | 1,10 | 1,43 | NOK/share |
| Cash available @ 10% downsale & 50 % discount | 6 | 30 | 53 | 83 | 142 | 195 | 238 | 286 | 370 | MNOK |
| Cash available @ 15% downsale & 50 % discount | 9 | 45 | 80 | 124 | 213 | 293 | 356 | 429 | 555 | MNOK |
Sist oppdatert 19.06.2016:
Endringer fra forrige vurdering:
- Dollarkurs endret fra 8,32 til 8,36 (inntekter i dollar)
- Eurokurs endret fra 9,48 til 9,43 (kostnader i euro)
- Forventet salg av 56% eierandel, dvs. eierandel redusert til 11% for å finansiere "step 3" Engebø
- Antall aksjer endret fra 385,5 til 555,5 mill.
| Lav (-15%) | Snitt | Høy (+15%) | Enhet | |
| Forekomst (proven + probable + inferred) | 4,52 | 5,32 | 6,12 | mill tonn |
| Produksjonstid | 11,2 | 11,2 | 11,2 | år |
| Li2O konsentrasjon i forekomsten | 1,1 | 1,1 | 1,1 | % |
| Årlig Li2CO3-produksjon 99,5% | 8100 | 8100 | 8100 | tonn |
| Årlig Li2CO3-produksjon 99,9% | 900 | 900 | 900 | tonn |
| Årlig analcime produksjon | 101600 | 101600 | 101600 | tonn |
| Årlig columbite produksjon | 24 | 24 | 24 | tonn |
| Salgsverdi Li2CO3 99,5% | 7650 | 9000 | 10350 | USD/tonn |
| Salgsverdi Li2CO3 99,9% | 9350 | 11000 | 12650 | USD/tonn |
| Salgsverdi analcime | 110 | 275 | 440 | USD/tonn |
| Salgsverdi columbite | 224872 | 264555 | 304238 | USD/tonn |
| Break even | 1975 | 2323 | 2671 | EUR/tonn |
| Kurs 19.06.16: USD/NOK | 8,36 | 8,36 | 8,36 | NOK/USD |
| Kurs 19.06.16: EUR/NOK | 9,43 | 9,43 | 9,43 | NOK/EUR |
| Profitt pr tonn Li2CO3 99,5% | 45334 | 53334 | 61334 | NOK/tonn |
| Profitt pr tonn Li2CO3 99,9% | 59546 | 70054 | 80562 | NOK/tonn |
| Årlig profitt (inkl. analcite og columbite) | 727 | 979 | 1231 | mill. kr |
| Total profitt | 8,14 | 10,96 | 13,79 | mrd. kr. |
| Minus investeringer | 1,55 | 1,55 | 1,55 | mrd. kr. |
| Antall aksjer pr. 07.04.2016 | 555,5 | 555,5 | 555,5 | mill. aksjer |
| Eierandel NOM | 25 | 25 | 25 | % |
| Bidrag aksjeverdi ved 25% eierandel | 2,97 | 4,24 | 5,51 | kr/aksje |
| Salg av 56% eierandel (for 128 MNOK) | -1,66 | -2,37 | -3,08 | kr/aksje |
| Bidrag aksjeverdi etter salg | 1,31 | 1,86 | 2,42 | kr/aksje |
Tidligere oppdatert 07.04.2016:
Verdivurdering av lithiumsforekomsten i Länttä, Rapasaari, Outovesi og Syväjärvi. Oppstartskostnader på 1550 mill NOK er trukket ifra. I vurderingen er det brukt 9000t/år som grunnlag.
PFSen (med delrapporter) er nå ferdig, og der står bl.a.:
- The earnings of the lithium project is expected to accrue from the sales of lithium carbonate (both battery grade (99.5 % Li2CO3) and high purity grade (99.9 % Li2CO3)), tantalum and analcime.
- The battery grade (min. 99.5 % Li2CO3) is expected to compose 90 % of the lithium carbonate production. The rest (10 % of production) is expected to be sold as high-purity battery grade (min. 99.9 % Li2CO3)
Columbite (Ta2O5 @ 220-310 USD/kg): Total production estimate: 268 tonn
- Based on the latest information from USGS (2016) the tantalum ore monthly prices were at about US$ 88 per pound of Ta2O5 content from January through August. This was 20 % lower than average price tantalum in 2014.
Analcime (NaAlSi2O6·(H2O) @ 110-440 USD/tonn): Total production estimate: 1 138 114 tonn
- According to the estimates of USGS (2016) prices of natural zeolites have ranged from US$ 110 to US$ 440 per metric tons in 2015. The predicted price in PFS for the analcime is kept on a neutral level, 46 euros per metric ton (50 USD/t).
Endringer fra forrige vurdering:
- Dollarkurs endret fra 8,04 til 8,32 (inntekter i dollar)
- Eurokurs endret fra 8,72 til 9,48 (kostnader i euro)
- Faktor 2,57 Lithium -> Li2CO3 er fjernet (estimert salgsvolum Li2CO3 omtales i PFSen)
- Forekomstens størrelse redusert fra 6,2 til 5,3 mill. tonn
- Årlig produksjonsvolum endret fra 3906 til 9000 tonn
- Salg av biproduksjon (analcime og tantalum) er tatt med
- Li2O-konsentrasjon er endret fra 1,26 til 1,1%
- Break even er endret fra 1700 €/tonn til 2323 €/tonn
- Investeringskostnader endret fra 800 til 1550 mill. kr.
- Antall aksjer endret fra 308,5 til 385,5 mill.
| Lav (-15%) | Snitt | Høy (+15%) | Enhet | |
| Forekomst (proven + probable + inferred) | 4,52 | 5,32 | 6,12 | mill tonn |
| Produksjonstid | 11,2 | 11,2 | 11,2 | år |
| Li2O konsentrasjon i forekomsten | 1,1 | 1,1 | 1,1 | % |
| Årlig Li2CO3-produksjon 99,5% | 8100 | 8100 | 8100 | tonn |
| Årlig Li2CO3-produksjon 99,9% | 900 | 900 | 900 | tonn |
| Årlig analcime produksjon | 101600 | 101600 | 101600 | tonn |
| Årlig columbite (tantalum) produksjon | 24 | 24 | 24 | tonn |
| Salgsverdi Li2CO3 99,5% | 7650 | 9000 | 10350 | USD/tonn |
| Salgsverdi Li2CO3 99,9% | 9350 | 11000 | 12650 | USD/tonn |
| Salgsverdi analcime | 110 | 275 | 440 | USD/tonn |
| Salgsverdi columbite (tantalum) | 224872 | 264555 | 304238 | USD/tonn |
| Break even | 1975 | 2323 | 2671 | EUR/tonn |
| 06.04.16: USD/NOK | 8,32 | 8,32 | 8,32 | NOK/USD |
| 06.04.16: EUR/NOK | 9,48 | 9,48 | 9,48 | NOK/EUR |
| Profitt pr tonn Li2CO3 99,5% | 44929 | 52858 | 60787 | NOK/tonn |
| Profitt pr tonn Li2CO3 99,9% | 59073 | 69498 | 79923 | NOK/tonn |
| Årlig profitt (inkl. analcite og columbite) | 723 | 974 | 1225 | mill. kr |
| Total profitt | 8,10 | 10,91 | 13,72 | mrd. kr. |
| Minus investeringer | 1,55 | 1,55 | 1,55 | mrd. kr. |
| Antall aksjer pr. 07.04.2016 | 385,5 | 385,5 | 385,5 | mill. aksjer |
| Eierandel NOM | 25 | 25 | 25 | % |
| Bidrag aksjeverdi | 4,25 | 6,07 | 7,89 | kr/aksje |
Forrige oppdatering 08.04.2015:
Milestones:
- A pre-feasibility study including preliminary project financials is tentatively scheduled for completion in Q3 2015.
- Environmental impact assessments (“EIA”) in accordance with environmental legislative regulations are ongoing related to Keliber’s mineral deposits. The EIA program was published in February 2014 and several studies and investigations have been completed and reported. The remaining work is expected to be finished in Q2 2015.
| Lav (-25%) | Snitt | Høy (+25%) | Enhet | |
| Forekomst | 4,65 | 6,2 | 7,75 | mill tonn |
| Produksjonstid | 20 | 20 | 20 | år |
| Li2O konsentrasjon i forekomsten | 1,26 | 1,26 | 1,26 | % |
| Årlig Li2O-produksjon | 2930 | 3906 | 4883 | tonn |
| Lithium/Li2CO3 | 2,57 | 2,57 | 2,57 | |
| Årlig Lithiumkarbonatproduksjon | 7529 | 10038 | 12548 | tonn |
| Salgsverdi Li2CO3 | 9000 | 12000 | 15000 | USD/tonn |
| Break even | 1700 | 1700 | 1700 | EUR/tonn |
| 29.12.14: USD/NOK | 8,04 | 8,04 | 8,04 | NOK/USD |
| 29.12.14: EUR/NOK | 8,72 | 8,72 | 8,72 | NOK/EUR |
| Profitt pr tonn Li2CO3 | 57536 | 81656 | 105776 | NOK/tonn |
| Årlig profitt | 433 | 820 | 1327 | mill. kr |
| Total profitt | 8,66 | 16,39 | 26,55 | mrd. kr. |
| Minus investeringer | 0,8 | 0,8 | 0,8 | mrd. kr. |
| Antall aksjer pr. 29.12.2014 | 308,5 | 308,5 | 308,5 | mill. aksjer |
| Eierandel NOM | 25 | 25 | 25 | % |
| Bidrag aksjeverdi | 6,37 | 12,64 | 20,86 | kr/aksje |
